Weekly Grain Update 8.21.15

Markets were mostly influenced by social media this week as the Pro Farmer made their annual trek through the Corn Belt to check crops.  Starting in the east, yields were generally disappointing, but not necessarily unexpected given the early season struggles.  Corn had a more negative bias than the soybeans which was generally reflected in board action for the week.  As the Tour proceeded from West to East, corn was less disappointing, but still somewhat below USDA estimates.  While soybean yields are harder to predict this time of year, pod counts are taken as an indication of potential, with an average estimate released at the end of the week.

After the week of headlines, generally supportive to corn and bearish to soybeans, final yield estimates were released after the close Friday.  At this point Pro Farmer is estimating national corn yield at 164.3 bpa, 4.5 bpa below the most recent USDA figure.  National soybean yield was estimated at 46.5 bpa by Pro Farmer compared to 46.9 by the USDA.

When it was all said and done, corn closed marginally higher on the week but soybeans couldn’t brush off the negative headlines, closing down $0.26 on the week.  Now that we have the Tour out of the way, focus will once again shift to USDA yields and balance sheet gymnastics.  Believe it or not, harvest is really just a few weeks away and had progress moves north, we will get a better handle on reality.  Until then, look for sideways trade with slightly higher bias in corn due to lower yield estimates.  Soybeans look have much more downside risk than upside potential moving forward.


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CHS – Rochester Grain Team
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