Weekly Grain Update 5.15.15

On Tuesday, the USDA released the latest round of Supply and Demand estimates.  Trade participants were generally expecting a small increase in corn carryout for this year.  Corn carryout was raised slightly to 1.851 billion bushels, up 24 million from April.  In our first glance at carryout for next year, the USDA projected  a 1.746 billion carryout in 2015/16.  Both numbers were generally as expected, and after some knee jerk reaction higher, corn ended the day mostly unchanged.  For the week, corn managed to gain two to four cents in most contract months.

The soybean balance sheet provided more of a firework show.  Old crop carryout was decreased 20 million bushels thanks to a small increase in both crush and export categories.  The USDA’s first shot at the 2015/16 bean carryout was the biggest surprise of the day, an estimated 500 million bushels.  If realized, this would be the largest soybean carryout figure since 2006/07.  The soy complex reacted sharply lower on the higher stocks facing us in the coming year.

As for local basis, corn bids were generally weaker.  End-users and producers seem to be playing a game of chicken.  Who will blink first?  Will the processor firm bids to keep supplies moving or will the producer throw in the towel, unwilling to pay more storage in a falling market?

Soybean bids seem to be steady to slightly firmer to end the week.  NOPA crush figures, along with soyoil stocks, indicate demand for soybeans will remain strong in the short term.

Read Full Market Update

CHS – Rochester Grain Team
Kasson: 507-634-7545 ext 7
Ostrander: 507-657-2234

This Material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Rochester and should be considered a solicitation.  The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.  CHS Rochester bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Rochester personnel.

 

© 2024 CHS Inc. | Cookie Preferences