The week started with a lower tone, following on the heels of last week’s disappointing trade. However, to end the week, a spark was found, generally driven by fund money covering short positions. Wheat was the first benefactor followed by soybeans on Friday. Corn was the reluctant tag along Friday after testing recent lows mid-week. In the end, corn closed down only fractionally, unable to sustain momentum from export sales and shipments. Soybeans had a stronger week, closing up $0.15 on the week. Even though we have already seen these prices, the rally sparked producer sales here in the US. Luckily, however, basis was not immediately impacted by the rally and ensuing sales. Steady basis is not likely to hold for long. A lot of grain needs to move to market, look for basis to weaken as we move through spring and summer.
Further contributing to the late week rally was chatter of a adversely wet weather conditions in wheat country, although that was generally dismissed as too much concern too early. Geo-political strife also was a factor today as Brazil saw their currency move higher and financial markets drop. This is seen as holding back producers from making more sales.
Corn sales were respectable this week at just shy of 1.1 million metric tons. Total commitments are still running at 66% of the USDA estimate. Soybean exports were again disappointing, yet sales are still at 92% of the USDA estimate.
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