Weekly Grain Update 3.11.16

An updated look at the USDA Supply & Demand tables provided little excitement for the grain markets this week.  Estimated US carryout for corn was left unchanged, while US soybean carryout was raised 10 million bushels.  On the world stage, carryout was cut slightly for both corn and soybeans.  Overall, the report was viewed as mostly neutral.

Given the bearish fundamental picture was confirmed by the USDA, technical traders starting taking control.  A slight boost from fund short covering was extended by the tech traders, and a market generally looking for any reason to move higher.  Some key technical resistance levels were penetrated this week, and the strong close gives some hope for follow through next week.  While corn had a solid week both in old crop and new crop, new crop beans had a psychologically better.  November 2016 soybeans struggled to pierce the $9.00 mark on Thursday, and after two sided trade to start Friday, managed to close solidly above $9.00, at $9.06 3/4.  With the volatile, two-sided trade we have seen in recent days it is a good idea to keep active pricing orders for targets above the market.  You never know when they will hit.

Looking ahead, we are likely to hear more about planting pace for US crops, and how spring weather is going to affect production prospects.  Watch for steady futures will a lower bias, but also be wary of sliding basis levels.

If you would like to receive the Weekly Grain Recap via email each week, just send Aaron an email and I will get you on the list. aaron.ulland@chsinc.com

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CHS – Rochester Grain Team
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