A week after the USDA printed what could be argued as the most bearish report in recent memory, corn managed to close higher every day this week. Corn was able to shrug off the 175.1 projected yield and gain a dime on the week. The surprising yield print was met with an equally surprising recovery in prices to lead some to believe we may have found a bottom in the corn market. All we can do now is wait for the combines to roll to see how accurate the yield figures are.
Soybeans struggled late week, but still managed to gain nearly 25 cents on the week. Good weather to end the critical pod-fill month of August pressured the soy complex Thursday and Friday.
On the cash front, corn basis has a generally softer tone to it as more capitulation and “throw in the towel” selling took place with the small uptick in prices this week. Soybean basis is still firm in most areas but seems to be reaching a peak. Processor margins are not great but their ownership length is near enough to new crop that bids are settling back, pushes are dwindling.
Looking ahead to next week, keep your ears and eyes tuned to social media. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour kicks off Monday morning which should give the market plenty of chatter to trade with frequent yield estimates, comments, and pictures of crop potential. This could provide some price opportunity via volatility as the market digests each fresh report.
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CHS – Rochester Grain Team
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