Winter is the season of market outlook meetings and industry guesses for the upcoming planted acreage mix.  This morning, the annual USDA Outlook Conference gave us a first look at how the Feds envision that mix for the 2016/17 crop to be planted in a few weeks.  Initial projections show 90 million acres of corn, up two million from last year, with a trend line yield of 168.0 bpa.  Beans are projected at 82.5 million acres, nearly unchanged from last season, with a initial yield of 46.7 bpa.  With these numbers plugged into the S&D tables, the market is now starting to hash, and rehash the possibility of a corn carryout just shy of 2 billion bushels.  Bean carryout is not projected to change as much, today’s outlook conference implied 440 million bushels to end the 2016/17 season.

As you can imagine, the prospect of higher acreage and carryout for both corn and soybeans is not supportive to an already struggling futures market.  Look for the board to continue to drift sideways with a lower bias.  The market will continue to debate today’s number dump until either weather turns for the worse or a new demand source enters the picture.  In the meantime, be watchful of basis values as well.  Typically basis will improve with a falling board, however this year could see basis stagnate or even fall due to growing stocks.  Be mindful of new crop as well.  Considering the potential crop size, board carries should improve, making futures only sales a viable possibility for deferred shipments.

With the volatility we have seen in recent weeks, it is important to have working pricing offers in place to help capture market opportunities.  This could also be a good time to think of Delayed Pricing programs.  Ship the corn now before warmer weather hits and grain quality slips away.  CHS Rochester is offering FREE DP on new delivered corn and soybeans, with pricing by 8/31/16.  Give us a call for more details.

If you would like to receive the Weekly Grain Recap via email each week, just send Aaron an email and I will get you on the list. aaron.ulland@chsinc.com

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CHS – Rochester Grain Team
Kasson: 507-634-7545 ext 7
Ostrander: 507-657-2234

This Material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Rochester and should be considered a solicitation.  The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.  CHS Rochester bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Rochester personnel.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there is very little to excite the market place and fundamentals are very bearish.  As I look out my window I see the snow rapidly melting revealing last fall’s busy tillage season.  While the snow is not completely gone, it is just February 19th, which is leading to a slight increase in the “early spring” discussion in the market place.  A big crop in the bin, a dismal export situation, and now a potentially early spring.  None of those are market friendly bullet points.  Both corn and soybean board prices continue to trade within a range.  Trade this week saw a lot of March-May spreading as we near first notice day next week.

Cash markets were treading water this week as well.  Basis is steady to slightly weaker.  The lack of producer sales is keeping a floor under values, for now, simply delaying the inevitable collapse everyone expects.

One interesting note this week, which could impact the global export trade, is the Panama Canal is nearing the point of imposing draft restrictions due to dry weather.  While nothing is confirmed, the prospect of smaller shipments through the canal this summer could increase global freight rates and potentially improve US export competitiveness.  Just another fun aspect of our global weather market.

With the volatility we have seen in recent weeks, it is important to have working pricing offers in place to help capture market opportunities.  This could also be a good time to think of Delayed Pricing programs.  Ship the corn now before warmer weather hits and grain quality slips away.  CHS Rochester is offering FREE DP on new delivered corn and soybeans, with pricing by 8/31/16.  Give us a call for more details.

If you would like to receive the Weekly Grain Recap via email each week, just send Aaron an email and I will get you on the list. aaron.ulland@chsinc.com

Read Full Market Update

CHS – Rochester Grain Team
Kasson: 507-634-7545 ext 7
Ostrander: 507-657-2234

This Material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Rochester and should be considered a solicitation.  The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.  CHS Rochester bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Rochester personnel.

The past two weeks have been fairly benign in the market place.  We have been testing recent ranges with period, short-lived spikes.  This week the USDA gave us another look at the supply and demand situation for corn and soybeans.  No big changes were anticipated and that is exactly what happened.  Ethanol grind was actually increased slightly while exports were dropped 50 million bushels.  Net carryout for corn was increased 35 million bushels to 1.837 billion.  On the soybean side, the only change was a small decrease in crush of 10 million bushels, increasing carryout by a like amount to 450 million.  All in all, the market took this information in stride with outside markets being the primary market driver this week.

Now that we are in the middle of February, spring should be right around the corner, but old man winter is not giving up without a fight.  The bad weather is having a positive impact on spot corn basis levels.  However, be careful as these bids are likely to be fleeting.  Ethanol margins are suffering, finally breaking even again, and corn plants don’t want buy more corn than they need before they need it.  The general consensus is that basis is destined to head lower the later we go through the year.  Near burdensome world supplies of corn and soybeans, along with lackluster demand for are joining forces to push prices lower.  In corn, we are likely to see board prices continue sideways, testing the bounds of our recent range from time to time.  As for soybeans, there is some discussion of more acres and growing supplies, which could lead to prices starting with a $7.  Be alert for pricing opportunities and consider alternative contracting options such as minimum price contracts or cash plus contracts.  Give Jared or Aaron a call for more information.

With the volatility we have seen in recent weeks, it is important to have working pricing offers in place to help capture market opportunities.  This could also be a good time to think of Delayed Pricing programs.  Ship the corn now before warmer weather hits and grain quality slips away.  CHS Rochester is offering FREE DP on new delivered corn and soybeans, with pricing by 8/31/16.  Give us a call for more details.

If you would like to receive the Weekly Grain Recap via email each week, just send Aaron an email and I will get you on the list. aaron.ulland@chsinc.com

Read Full Market Update

CHS – Rochester Grain Team
Kasson: 507-634-7545 ext 7
Ostrander: 507-657-2234

This Material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Rochester and should be considered a solicitation.  The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.  CHS Rochester bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Rochester personnel.