Monthly Archives:: May 2015

Weekly Grain Update 5.22.15

For the week, grain trade was relatively quiet.  The primary market maker this week was weather.  Early in the week frost and freeze warnings were issued for parts of the upper Midwest, potentially putting some of the young corn crop at risk.  When the threat passed with little impact, Monday’s weather premiums were quickly taken back.  As the week progressed, corn resumed it’s mundane sideways trend, while soybeans continued their slow decent lower.

Wheat markets were also playing with the corn markets this week.  Wet weather over parts of Southern wheat crops are beginning to negatively impact production and quality potential.  This had led to some short-covering gains in wheat, with corn an additional beneficiary.

Monday’s planting progress is expected to show nearly 85% of corn planted and 65% of soybeans in the ground nationally.  We should also get our first condition rating for corn, with estimates putting 78% of the crop in the Good and Excellent categories.  Should this prove out, it is possible we will start to hear more debate about potential yield with early planting and high ratings this early in the year.

With Memorial Day on Monday, there will be no markets Sunday night or Monday.  The long weekend has many traders vacating the floor early, resulting in a quiet, thin trade.  Weekend rains over wheat country will likely impact market direction when trade resumes Monday night.

Read Full Market Update

CHS – Rochester Grain Team
Kasson: 507-634-7545 ext 7
Ostrander: 507-657-2234

This Material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Rochester and should be considered a solicitation.  The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.  CHS Rochester bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Rochester personnel.

Weekly Grain Update 5.15.15

On Tuesday, the USDA released the latest round of Supply and Demand estimates.  Trade participants were generally expecting a small increase in corn carryout for this year.  Corn carryout was raised slightly to 1.851 billion bushels, up 24 million from April.  In our first glance at carryout for next year, the USDA projected  a 1.746 billion carryout in 2015/16.  Both numbers were generally as expected, and after some knee jerk reaction higher, corn ended the day mostly unchanged.  For the week, corn managed to gain two to four cents in most contract months.

The soybean balance sheet provided more of a firework show.  Old crop carryout was decreased 20 million bushels thanks to a small increase in both crush and export categories.  The USDA’s first shot at the 2015/16 bean carryout was the biggest surprise of the day, an estimated 500 million bushels.  If realized, this would be the largest soybean carryout figure since 2006/07.  The soy complex reacted sharply lower on the higher stocks facing us in the coming year.

As for local basis, corn bids were generally weaker.  End-users and producers seem to be playing a game of chicken.  Who will blink first?  Will the processor firm bids to keep supplies moving or will the producer throw in the towel, unwilling to pay more storage in a falling market?

Soybean bids seem to be steady to slightly firmer to end the week.  NOPA crush figures, along with soyoil stocks, indicate demand for soybeans will remain strong in the short term.

Read Full Market Update

CHS – Rochester Grain Team
Kasson: 507-634-7545 ext 7
Ostrander: 507-657-2234

This Material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Rochester and should be considered a solicitation.  The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.  CHS Rochester bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Rochester personnel.

 

Weekly Grain Update 5.1.15

Corn prices fought against the rapid spread of two strong bearish factors: planting progress and avian flu. While national corn planting progress was reported at 19% on Monday evening, it is thought to be approaching 50% planted in key areas which will likely bring the nation to nearly 40% planted next week. With the ideal planting conditions there has also been some talk that “extra” corn acres will be seeded rather than making the switch to beans this early in the planting window. The spread of the avian flu continues to baffle scientists trying to slow the spread and find a solution to the problem.

Soybeans attempted a brief rally this week in an effort to prevent the “extra” corn acres from going in the ground. Slightly better than expect export sales of old crop soybeans failed to push the market past key technical resistance levels, and the rally failed as another month-end came to pass.

Cash basis levels were seen as mixed this week. Soybeans saw the best strength nearby, an effort to keep the few trucks still on the road during planting season, hauling beans rather than corn. Corn basis was steady to slightly weaker for the week. End users are less willing to push to extend ownership as they wait for the inevitable “second harvest” this summer, a time when basis is likely to collapse.

Read Full Market Update

CHS – Rochester Grain Team
Kasson: 507-634-7545 ext 7
Ostrander: 507-657-2234

This Material has been prepared by a sales or trading employee or agent of CHS Rochester and should be considered a solicitation.  The information contained in this presentation is taken from sources which we believe to be reliable, but is not guaranteed by us as to accuracy or completeness and is sent to you for information purposes only.  There is a risk of loss when trading commodity futures and options.  CHS Rochester bases its recommendations solely on the judgment of CHS Rochester personnel.

© 2019 CHS Inc.